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基于可靠性方法的大口徑天然氣管段壁厚設計
陳嚴飛, 王春莎, 董紹華, 侯富恒, 李興濤
1 中國石油大學( 北京) 機械與儲運工程學院,,北京 102249 2 中國石油大學( 北京) 管道技術與安全研究中心,,北京 102249 3 中國石油國際勘探開發(fā)有限公司,,北京 100029
Design of the wall thickness of a certain large diameter natural gas pipeline using a reliability method
CHEN Yanfei, WANG Chunsha, DONG Shaohua, HOU Fuheng, LI Xingtao
1 School of Mechanical and Storage Engineering, China University of Petroleum-Beijing, Beijing 102249, China 2 Pipeline Technology and Safety Research Center, China University of Petroleum-Beijing, Beijing 102249, China 3 China National Oil and Gas Exploration and Development Company Ltd., Beijing 100029, China

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摘要? 我國陸上天然氣管道規(guī)模龐大,,管道路由地形,、地貌和氣候特征復雜多樣。面對管道及管道所處環(huán)境的 復雜性,提高油氣管道的本質安全水平是行業(yè)和民眾的共同需求,保證陸上天然氣管道安全和可靠運行也越來越成為行業(yè)關注的焦點。為達到這個目標,,可以采用從源頭上對陸上天然氣管道的設計方法進行改進的辦法,。目前天然氣管道設計大多普遍利用傳統(tǒng)的基于應力的設計方法,該方法由于采用單一的安全系數導致油氣管道的安全裕度難以考量,,針對此問題,,基于可靠性的油氣管道設計和評估方法(Reliability Based Design and Assessment,簡稱RBDA)正成為現代陸上天然氣管道設計的趨向,,該方法可量化管道全生命周期中的風險,,避免采用不合理或過于保守的設計標準。故本研究綜合CSA Z662《油氣管道系統(tǒng)》標準規(guī)范的油氣管道可靠性設計方法,,并結合國內部分機構根據我國國情而修正的可靠性研究,,利用RBDA方法流程,根據某段實際天然氣管道確定該管道失效的主要原因(以腐蝕和第三方破壞為主),,設計了管道在其生命周期內的極限狀態(tài),,根據極限狀態(tài)選擇對應的極限狀態(tài)方程類型,并利用多種數據統(tǒng)計分析方法和軟件確定方程中所涉及各個隨機變量參數的分布類型,,之后利用蒙特卡洛法(Monte-Carlo 法)計算設計壁厚條件下得到天然氣管道失效概率,,統(tǒng)籌考慮其他失效原因的權重,進而得到該管道的可靠度,,將該可靠度數據與國內外標準規(guī)范確定的目標可靠度進行對比,,檢驗是否滿足可靠度目標。由此,,對大口徑天然氣管段完成壁厚設計,,實現了使用RBDA方法對1016 mm大口徑天然氣管道設計的整體流程。
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關鍵詞 : 天然氣管道,可靠性,極限狀態(tài),管道壁厚,蒙特卡洛法
Abstract

The scale of onshore natural gas pipelines in China is huge, and the pipeline routes have complex and diverse terrain, landforms, and climate characteristics. Faced with the complexity of pipelines and the environment in which they operate, improving the intrinsic safety level of oil and gas pipelines is a common demand of the industry and the public. Ensuring the safe and reliable operation of onshore natural gas pipelines has become an increasingly important focus of industry attention. To achieve this goal, it is possible to improve the design method of onshore natural gas pipelines from the source. At present, traditional stress based design methods are widely used in natural gas pipeline design. Due to the use of a single safety factor, it is difficult to consider the safety margin of oil and gas pipelines. To address this issue, Reliability Based Design and Assessment (RBDA) is becoming a trend in modern onshore natural gas pipeline design. This method can quantify the risks throughout the entire life cycle of the pipeline and avoid using unreasonable or overly conservative design standards. Therefore, this study integrates the reliability design method of the CSA Z662 "Oil and Gas Pipeline System" standard specification for oil and gas pipelines, and combines it with the reliability research revised by some domestic institutions according to China's national conditions. Using the RBDA method process, the main causes of pipeline failure (mainly corrosion and third-party damage) are determined based on a certain section of actual natural gas pipeline. The limit state of the pipeline is designed during its life cycle, and the corresponding limit state equation type is selected based on the limit state. Multiple data statistical analysis methods and software are used to determine the distribution types of various random variable parameters involved in the equation. Then, the Monte Carlo method is used to calculate the failure probability of the natural gas pipeline under the design wall thickness condition, and the weights of other failure causes are considered comprehensively to obtain the natural gas pipeline failure probability. The reliability of the pipeline, Compare the reliability data with the target reliability determined by domestic and foreign standard specifications to verify whether it meets the reliability target. Thus, the wall thickness design of the large-diameter natural gas pipeline section was completed, realizing the overall process of using RBDA method for the design of 1016mm large-diameter natural gas pipelines.


Key words: natural gas pipeline; reliability; limit state; pipe wall thickness; Monte Carlo method
收稿日期: 2024-10-31 ????
PACS: ? ?
基金資助:國家自然科學基金(51779265, 52171285),、中國石油大學( 北京) 科研基金( 編號:2462020YXZZ045)、中國石油天然氣集團有限公司—中國石油大學( 北京) 戰(zhàn)略合作科技專項:“一帶一路”海外長輸管道完整性關鍵技術研究與應用(ZLZX2020-05) 聯合資助
通訊作者: [email protected]
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陳嚴飛, 王春莎, 董紹華, 侯富恒, 李興濤. 基于可靠性方法的大口徑天然氣管段壁厚設計. 石油科學通報, 2024, 09(05): 831-840 CHEN Yanfei, WANG Chunsha, DONG Shaohua, HOU Fuheng, LI Xingtao. Design of the wall thickness of a certain large diameter natural gas pipeline using a reliability method. Petroleum Science Bulletin, 2024, 09(05): 831-840. doi: 10.3969/ j.issn.2096-1693.2024.05.064
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