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考慮兩層相關(guān)性的腐蝕油氣管道失效概率計(jì)算方法
王赤宇, 虞維超, 陳磊, 張華斌, 張杰, 王超, 王子宇, 廉凌峰, 黃輝榮
1 中國(guó)石油塔里木油田公司,庫(kù)爾勒 841000 2 國(guó)家石油天然氣管網(wǎng)集團(tuán)有限公司油氣調(diào)控中心,,北京 100013 3 國(guó)家石油天然氣管網(wǎng)集團(tuán)有限公司甘肅分公司,,蘭州 730060 4 深圳泊松軟件技術(shù)有限公司,,深圳 518129 5 重慶科技大學(xué)石油與天然氣工程學(xué)院,,重慶 401331
A method for calculating the failure probability of corroded oil and gas pipelines considering the two layers of correlation
WANG Chiyu, YU Weichao, CHEN Lei, ZHANG Huabin, ZHANG Jie, WANG Chao, WANG Ziyu, LIAN Lingfeng, HUANG Huirrong
1 PetroChina Tarim Oilfield Company, Korla 841000, China 2 PipeChina Oil& Gas Control Center, Beijing 100013, China 3 PipeChina Gansu Company, Lanzhou 730060, China 4 Shenzhen Poisson Software Technology Co., Ltd., Shenzhen 518129, China 5 School of Petroleum and Natural Gas Engineering, Chongqing University of Science & Technology, Chongqing 401331, China

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摘要? 在腐蝕油氣管道失效概率計(jì)算中,,存在隨機(jī)變量相關(guān)和腐蝕缺陷相關(guān)的兩層相關(guān)性,。針對(duì)當(dāng)前腐蝕管道 可靠性評(píng)價(jià)中對(duì)相關(guān)性影響的研究不足,,本文提出了考慮兩層相關(guān)性影響的腐蝕油氣管道失效概率計(jì)算方法,。該方法首先基于Copula函數(shù)對(duì)具有相關(guān)性的隨機(jī)變量進(jìn)行抽樣,,結(jié)合管道失效極限狀態(tài)方程,,計(jì)算單個(gè)腐蝕缺陷的失效概率。進(jìn)一步采用系統(tǒng)可靠性理論,,考慮缺陷間相關(guān)性,,對(duì)含多個(gè)腐蝕缺陷的腐蝕油氣管道失效概率進(jìn)行計(jì)算。并以我國(guó)某條天然氣管道的實(shí)際數(shù)據(jù)為例,,采用拉丁超立方抽樣方法研究了兩層相關(guān)性以及缺陷數(shù)量對(duì)管道失效概率的影響,,并基于敏感性分析,量化了隨機(jī)變量相關(guān)系數(shù)和腐蝕缺陷相關(guān)系數(shù)對(duì)腐蝕油氣管道失效概率的影響,。結(jié)果表明,,缺陷相關(guān)性對(duì)管道失效概率計(jì)算影響明顯高于隨機(jī)變量相關(guān)性。小孔泄漏和爆裂失效概率隨著缺陷之間相關(guān)系數(shù)的增大而減小,,隨著缺陷數(shù)量的增加而增大,。隨機(jī)變量相關(guān)性對(duì)管道小孔泄漏失效概率沒有影響,管道爆裂失效概率隨著壁厚與管徑相關(guān)系數(shù)的增大而減小,,隨著初始缺陷長(zhǎng)度與深度的相關(guān)系數(shù)增大而增大,。缺陷軸向與徑向增長(zhǎng)速率相關(guān)系數(shù)的增大對(duì)管道爆裂失效概率的影響具有雙向性,預(yù)測(cè)周期內(nèi)大約前16 年隨著相關(guān)系數(shù)的增大,,管道爆裂失效概率增加,,大約25 年后隨著相關(guān)系數(shù)的增大,隨相關(guān)系數(shù)增大而降低,。研究成果適用于分析含多個(gè)腐蝕缺陷的油氣管道可靠性評(píng)價(jià),,對(duì)管道安全運(yùn)行、油氣資源平穩(wěn)供應(yīng)具有參考意義,。
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關(guān)鍵詞 : 腐蝕油氣管道,雙層相關(guān)性,拉丁超立方抽樣,可靠性,失效概率
Abstract

In the calculation of the failure probability of corroded oil and gas pipelines, there are two layers of correlation between random variables and corrosion defects. In view of the insufficient research on the influence of correlation in the reliability evaluation of corroded oil and gas pipelines, this study proposes a method for calculating the failure probability of corroded oil and gas pipelines considering the influence of the two layers of correlation. In the method, the Copula function is employed to sample the random variables with correlation, and the failure probability of a single corrosion defect is calculated by using the failure limit state equation. Then, the system reliability theory is used to calculate the failure probability of corroded oil and gas pipelines with multiple corrosion defects considering the correlation between defects. Moreover, taking the actual data of a natural gas pipeline in China as an example, the Latin hypercube sampling method was used to study the influence of the two layers of correlation and the number of defects on the failure probability of the pipeline. Moreover, the effects of random variable correlation coefficient and corrosion defect correlation coefficient on the failure probability of corroded oil and gas pipelines were quantified based on sensitivity analysis. The results show that the influence of defect correlation on pipeline failure probability calculation is significantly higher than that of random variables. The probability of leakage and burst failure of small holes in corroded pipelines decreases with the increase of the correlation coefficient between defects, and increases with the increase of the number of defects. The correlation of random variables has no effect on the probability of leakage of small holes in the pipeline, and the probability of pipeline burst failure decreases with the increase of the correlation coefficient between wall thickness and pipeline diameter, and increases with the increase of the correlation coefficient of initial defect length and depth. The increase of the correlation coefficient of the axial and radial growth rate of defects has a bidirectional effect on the probability of pipeline burst failure, and the probability of pipeline burst failure increases with the increase of the correlation coefficient in the first 16 years of the prediction cycle, and decreases after about 25 years with the increase of the correlation coefficient. The research results are suitable for the analysis of the reliability evaluation of oil and gas pipelines with multiple corrosion defects which have reference significance for the safe operation of pipelines and the stable supply of oil and gas resources.


Key words: corroded oil and gas pipeline; two layers of correlation; Latin hypercube sampling method; reliability; failure probability
收稿日期: 2024-10-31 ????
PACS: ? ?
基金資助:重慶市自然科學(xué)基金“納米雜化降凝劑NPPD 對(duì)含蠟油體系表觀流變特性的改善機(jī)理研究”(No.cstc2021jcyj- msxmX0918),、重慶市教委
科技研究計(jì)劃“納米降凝劑NPPD 對(duì)含蠟油蠟沉積特性的影響機(jī)理研究”(No.KJQN202101545) 和重慶科技學(xué)院科研啟動(dòng)項(xiàng)目“新型納米流動(dòng)改性劑NFM 對(duì)含蠟油微觀結(jié)晶過程的調(diào)控機(jī)理研究”(ckrc2021003) 聯(lián)合資助
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王赤宇, 虞維超, 陳磊, 張華斌, 張杰, 王超, 王子宇, 廉凌峰, 黃輝榮. 考慮兩層相關(guān)性的腐蝕油氣管道失效概率計(jì)算方法. 石油 科學(xué)通報(bào), 2024, 09(05): 819-830 WANG Chiyu, YU Weichao, CHEN Lei, ZHANG Huabin, ZHANG Jie, WANG Chao, WANG Ziyu, LIAN Lingfeng, HUANG Huirrong. A method for calculating the failure probability of corroded oil and gas pipelines considering the two layers of correlation. Petroleum Science Bulletin, 2024, 09(05): 819-830. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.2096-1693.2024.05.063
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