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考慮兩層相關性的腐蝕油氣管道失效概率計算方法
王赤宇, 虞維超, 陳磊, 張華斌, 張杰, 王超, 王子宇, 廉凌峰, 黃輝榮
1 中國石油塔里木油田公司,庫爾勒 841000 2 國家石油天然氣管網(wǎng)集團有限公司油氣調(diào)控中心,北京 100013 3 國家石油天然氣管網(wǎng)集團有限公司甘肅分公司,蘭州 730060 4 深圳泊松軟件技術有限公司,深圳 518129 5 重慶科技大學石油與天然氣工程學院,重慶 401331
A method for calculating the failure probability of corroded oil and gas pipelines considering the two layers of correlation
WANG Chiyu, YU Weichao, CHEN Lei, ZHANG Huabin, ZHANG Jie, WANG Chao, WANG Ziyu, LIAN Lingfeng, HUANG Huirrong
1 PetroChina Tarim Oilfield Company, Korla 841000, China 2 PipeChina Oil& Gas Control Center, Beijing 100013, China 3 PipeChina Gansu Company, Lanzhou 730060, China 4 Shenzhen Poisson Software Technology Co., Ltd., Shenzhen 518129, China 5 School of Petroleum and Natural Gas Engineering, Chongqing University of Science & Technology, Chongqing 401331, China

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摘要? 在腐蝕油氣管道失效概率計算中,存在隨機變量相關和腐蝕缺陷相關的兩層相關性。針對當前腐蝕管道 可靠性評價中對相關性影響的研究不足,本文提出了考慮兩層相關性影響的腐蝕油氣管道失效概率計算方法。該方法首先基于Copula函數(shù)對具有相關性的隨機變量進行抽樣,結合管道失效極限狀態(tài)方程,計算單個腐蝕缺陷的失效概率。進一步采用系統(tǒng)可靠性理論,考慮缺陷間相關性,對含多個腐蝕缺陷的腐蝕油氣管道失效概率進行計算。并以我國某條天然氣管道的實際數(shù)據(jù)為例,采用拉丁超立方抽樣方法研究了兩層相關性以及缺陷數(shù)量對管道失效概率的影響,并基于敏感性分析,量化了隨機變量相關系數(shù)和腐蝕缺陷相關系數(shù)對腐蝕油氣管道失效概率的影響。結果表明,缺陷相關性對管道失效概率計算影響明顯高于隨機變量相關性。小孔泄漏和爆裂失效概率隨著缺陷之間相關系數(shù)的增大而減小,隨著缺陷數(shù)量的增加而增大。隨機變量相關性對管道小孔泄漏失效概率沒有影響,管道爆裂失效概率隨著壁厚與管徑相關系數(shù)的增大而減小,隨著初始缺陷長度與深度的相關系數(shù)增大而增大。缺陷軸向與徑向增長速率相關系數(shù)的增大對管道爆裂失效概率的影響具有雙向性,預測周期內(nèi)大約前16 年隨著相關系數(shù)的增大,管道爆裂失效概率增加,大約25 年后隨著相關系數(shù)的增大,隨相關系數(shù)增大而降低。研究成果適用于分析含多個腐蝕缺陷的油氣管道可靠性評價,對管道安全運行、油氣資源平穩(wěn)供應具有參考意義。
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關鍵詞 : 腐蝕油氣管道,雙層相關性,拉丁超立方抽樣,可靠性,失效概率
Abstract

In the calculation of the failure probability of corroded oil and gas pipelines, there are two layers of correlation between random variables and corrosion defects. In view of the insufficient research on the influence of correlation in the reliability evaluation of corroded oil and gas pipelines, this study proposes a method for calculating the failure probability of corroded oil and gas pipelines considering the influence of the two layers of correlation. In the method, the Copula function is employed to sample the random variables with correlation, and the failure probability of a single corrosion defect is calculated by using the failure limit state equation. Then, the system reliability theory is used to calculate the failure probability of corroded oil and gas pipelines with multiple corrosion defects considering the correlation between defects. Moreover, taking the actual data of a natural gas pipeline in China as an example, the Latin hypercube sampling method was used to study the influence of the two layers of correlation and the number of defects on the failure probability of the pipeline. Moreover, the effects of random variable correlation coefficient and corrosion defect correlation coefficient on the failure probability of corroded oil and gas pipelines were quantified based on sensitivity analysis. The results show that the influence of defect correlation on pipeline failure probability calculation is significantly higher than that of random variables. The probability of leakage and burst failure of small holes in corroded pipelines decreases with the increase of the correlation coefficient between defects, and increases with the increase of the number of defects. The correlation of random variables has no effect on the probability of leakage of small holes in the pipeline, and the probability of pipeline burst failure decreases with the increase of the correlation coefficient between wall thickness and pipeline diameter, and increases with the increase of the correlation coefficient of initial defect length and depth. The increase of the correlation coefficient of the axial and radial growth rate of defects has a bidirectional effect on the probability of pipeline burst failure, and the probability of pipeline burst failure increases with the increase of the correlation coefficient in the first 16 years of the prediction cycle, and decreases after about 25 years with the increase of the correlation coefficient. The research results are suitable for the analysis of the reliability evaluation of oil and gas pipelines with multiple corrosion defects which have reference significance for the safe operation of pipelines and the stable supply of oil and gas resources.


Key words: corroded oil and gas pipeline; two layers of correlation; Latin hypercube sampling method; reliability; failure probability
收稿日期: 2024-10-31 ????
PACS: ? ?
基金資助:重慶市自然科學基金“納米雜化降凝劑NPPD 對含蠟油體系表觀流變特性的改善機理研究”(No.cstc2021jcyj- msxmX0918)、重慶市教委
科技研究計劃“納米降凝劑NPPD 對含蠟油蠟沉積特性的影響機理研究”(No.KJQN202101545) 和重慶科技學院科研啟動項目“新型納米流動改性劑NFM 對含蠟油微觀結晶過程的調(diào)控機理研究”(ckrc2021003) 聯(lián)合資助
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王赤宇, 虞維超, 陳磊, 張華斌, 張杰, 王超, 王子宇, 廉凌峰, 黃輝榮. 考慮兩層相關性的腐蝕油氣管道失效概率計算方法. 石油 科學通報, 2024, 09(05): 819-830 WANG Chiyu, YU Weichao, CHEN Lei, ZHANG Huabin, ZHANG Jie, WANG Chao, WANG Ziyu, LIAN Lingfeng, HUANG Huirrong. A method for calculating the failure probability of corroded oil and gas pipelines considering the two layers of correlation. Petroleum Science Bulletin, 2024, 09(05): 819-830. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.2096-1693.2024.05.063
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