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首頁» 過刊瀏覽» 2023» Vol.8» Issue(4) 512-521???? DOI : 10.3969/j.issn.2096-1693.2023.04.039
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能源系統(tǒng)低碳轉(zhuǎn)型中的氣象風險
范英, 姚星, 樊偉
1 北京航空航天大學經(jīng)濟管理學院,,北京 100191 2 北航低碳治理與政策智能教育部文科實驗室,,北京 100191
Meteorological risks in the low carbon transitions of the energy system
FAN Ying, YAO Xing, FAN Wei
1 School of Economics and Management, Beihang University, Beijing 100190, China 2 Laboratory for Low-carbon Intelligent Governance (LLIG), Beihang University, Beijing 100190, China

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摘要? 能源轉(zhuǎn)型的主要內(nèi)容是快速形成以可再生能源為主體的新型低碳能源系統(tǒng),由于可再生能源的波動性特征,加上極端氣象事件頻發(fā)的影響,,氣象風險已經(jīng)成為能源轉(zhuǎn)型的關(guān)鍵問題,。本文立足我國實際情況,,從氣象風險角度重新審視我國的低碳能源系統(tǒng)轉(zhuǎn)型路徑,,并對多種碳中和轉(zhuǎn)型方案進行分析,提出轉(zhuǎn)型過程中提升應對氣象風險能力的舉措并給出相應的政策建議,。研究認為,,為了確保能源體系在安全可靠的前提下穩(wěn)步完成碳中和轉(zhuǎn)型過程,需要在提高氣象預測能力,、重視化石能源作用,、建設(shè)智能傳輸體系、促進能源多樣化發(fā)展,、用好價格機制5 個方面采取相應措施,,有效防范潛在的氣象風險。
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關(guān)鍵詞 : 能源系統(tǒng),氣象風險,低碳轉(zhuǎn)型,碳中和,極端氣象
Abstract

The main part of energy transition is to form a new low-carbon energy system with renewable energy playing a leading role. However, due to the variability of renewable energy together with the frequent occurrence of extreme weather, meteorological risks are becoming a key problem during energy transitions. Based on the situation of China, the pathways of China’s low carbon energy transitions are rethought and the transitional schemes toward carbon neutrality are analyzed in this study from the angle of meteorological risks. Measures and policy recommendations for improving risk-resistant ability for meteorological risks are proposed. This study suggests that to ensure the carbon-neutral transitions of the energy system in a safe and reliable way and effectively prevent meteorological risks, the following five measures should be adopted: improving meteorological forecast ability, attaching greater importance to fossil fuels, establishing an intelligent energy transmission system, promoting diversified energy development and making full use of price mechanisms.

Key words: energy system; meteorological risk, low carbon transition; carbon neutrality; extreme weather
收稿日期: 2023-08-30 ????
PACS: ? ?
基金資助:國家自然科學基金(72021001、72204020),、教育部人文社會科學研究青年基金(22YJC630188),、國家能源集團課題項目(GJNY-22-151)、中國石油化工股份有限公司課題項目(322005) 聯(lián)合資助
通訊作者: [email protected]
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范英, 姚星, 樊偉. 能源系統(tǒng)低碳轉(zhuǎn)型中的氣象風險. 石油科學通報, 2023, 04: 512-521 FAN Ying, YAO Xing, FAN Wei. Meteorological risks in the low carbon transitions of the energy system. Petroleum Science Bulletin, 2023, 04: 512-521.
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