Co-competition game analysis on the oligopoly oil market under the world new supply patterns
CHENG Cheng, WANG Zhen, XUE Qing, LIU Mingming
1 Academy of Chinese Energy Strategy, China University of Petroleum-Beijing, Beijing 102249, China 2 CNPC Policy Research Office, Beijing 100003, China
The shale revolution has meant that the United States of America (USA) has become the largest oil producing country in the world. Its production has surpassed that of both Saudi Arabia and the Russian Federation. With the help of the shale oil, the USA is participating in the original production contest between traditional oil producers, and is determining the future oil supply patterns with OPEC and traditional non-OPEC producers. In order to analyze the future patterns and study the functions of a swing producer, oligopoly game models are applied in a competition scenario and a co-competition scenario to resolve the Nash equilibrium supplies, profits and profit per barrel of OPEC, traditional non-OPEC producers, and the USA. Moreover, the functions of the swing producer on the maintenance of aggregate profit for the oil industry are studied based on the predicted oil supply patterns. The results show that the traditional non-OPEC producers would hardly cooperate with OPEC. Besides, both the USA and Saudi Arabia have the potential to be swing producers.
Key words：
co-competition Cournot model Nash equilibrium oil production countries swing producers
程承,，王震,，薛慶，劉明明. 國際原油供給新變革下的寡頭合作競爭博弈分析[J]. 石油科學(xué)通報(bào), 2017, 2(1): 142-150. CHENG Cheng, WANG Zhen, XUE Qing, LIU Mingming. Co-competition game analysis on the oligopoly oil market under the world new supply patterns. Petroleum Science Bulletin, 2017, 2(1): 142-150.
