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首頁» 過刊瀏覽» 2024» Vol.9» lssue(2) 297-306???? DOI : 10.3969/j.issn.2096-1693.2024.02.021
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氣象災害下的油氣站場設(shè)備脆弱節(jié)點辨識方法
胡瑾秋, 韓子從, 董紹華.
中國石油大學( 北京) 安全與海洋工程學院,北京 102249
Identification method of vulnerable nodes of oil and gas station equipment under meteorological disasters
HU Jinqiu, HAN Zicong, DONG Shaohua
School of Safety and Ocean Engineering, China University of Petroleum-Beijing, Beijing 102249, China

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摘要? 油氣站場是保障我國石油與天然氣等能源運輸、儲存體系的重要組成部分,油氣站場的安全穩(wěn)定運行是油氣系統(tǒng),乃至國家經(jīng)濟發(fā)展的重要一環(huán)。我國面積較大,包含多種氣候地區(qū),不同地域易發(fā)暴雨、雷電、臺風等氣象災害。氣象災害發(fā)生在油氣站場及其附近時可能會對相關(guān)設(shè)施造成破壞,導致站場處于異常工況中運行,甚至引發(fā)事故。常見的石油及相關(guān)液態(tài)加工產(chǎn)品的儲運站場,介質(zhì)除本身具有易燃易爆特性外,一般還具有一定的揮發(fā)性,易形成可燃氣體云團。天然氣站場常伴隨高壓運行條件,站場一旦出現(xiàn)異常工況或事故會使廠區(qū)內(nèi)部工作人員的生命安全及周邊環(huán)境都承受較大風險。氣象災害往往難以避免,但可以通過有針對性地增加安全措施加強站場在氣象災害條件下的穩(wěn)定性,降低氣象災害帶來的風險。為了達到上述目的,綜合考慮油氣站場的設(shè)備在遇到暴雨、雷暴等氣象災害時,更容易發(fā)生油氣泄漏、爆炸等事故的情況,本文根據(jù)氣象災害發(fā)生場景,及相關(guān)場景下可能發(fā)生的災害演化路徑提出了一種定量的脆弱節(jié)點辨識方法。面對不同的環(huán)境風險,現(xiàn)有方法對于站場設(shè)備脆弱節(jié)點辨識缺乏精細度與準確度,錯誤辨識脆弱節(jié)節(jié)點不僅會導致防護過程中人力物力的浪費,更可能導致儲罐管道的泄漏,甚至引發(fā)爆炸。本文對重力模型進行改進,結(jié)合魯汶算法,提出基于社團分析模型的設(shè)備脆弱節(jié)點辨識方法。通過實驗分析,得到暴雨天氣、雷暴天氣下的脆弱節(jié)點,并利用提出模型對歷史案例進行分析,得到結(jié)果與實際調(diào)查情況較為吻合。相較于其他分析方法,社團分析模型精細度提高了10%以上,分析結(jié)果準確率提高了10%以上,召回率提高了14%以上。實驗結(jié)果表明,本文所提方法可以實現(xiàn)多種極端天氣下的脆弱節(jié)點辨識,且能對節(jié)點進行更精準的定位。
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關(guān)鍵詞 : 油氣站場,風險辨識,脆弱節(jié)點辨識,氣象災害,復雜網(wǎng)絡(luò),社團分析
Abstract

The oil and gas station is an important part of the transportation and storage system of oil and natural gas in China. The safe and stable operation of the oil and gas station is an important part of the oil and gas system and even the national economic development. China has a vast territory with diverse climate types, including storm, lightning, typhoon and other meteorological disasters. When meteorological disaster occurs in and around oil and gas stations and yards, it may cause damage to relevant installations, leading to abnormal operation of stations and yards, and even accidents. The medium in the oil and gas stations usually has significant characteristics of flammability and explosion. In the common situations, petroleum and related liquid processing products are generally volatility and easy to form flammable gas clouds. Natural gas stations are often accompanied by high pressure operation conditions. Once abnormal working condition or accident occurs, the life safety of staff inside the station area and the surrounding environment will bear risks. That’s difficult to avoid totally meteorological disasters, but targeted safety measures can be taken to strengthen the stability of stations to resist meteorological disasters and reduce the loss. Here, considering the equipment of oil and gas station often has more oil and gas leakage, explosion and other accidents when encountering meteorological disasters such as rainstorm and thunderstorm, this paper proposed a quantitative vulnerable node identification method according to the occurrence scenario of meteorological disasters and the possible disaster evolution path in related scenarios. The methods often adopted at present lack fineness and accuracy in identifying vulnerable nodes of station equipment, which may cost a lot to protect the wrong nodes and vulnerable nodes, but still lead to leakage of storage tank pipelines, or even high risk of explosion. Based on the improvement of gravity model and the Leuven algorithm, this paper proposed a method to identify vulnerable nodes of equipment in community analysis model. This paper revealed five vulnerable nodes, including automatic fire extinguishing system, ranking highest in rainstorm, and five vulnerable nodes, including lightning rod, ranking highest in thunderstorm. Compared with other analysis methods, the precision of community analysis model increased by more than 10%, the accuracy of analysis results increased by more than 10%, and the recall rate increased by more than 14%. The fragile nodes in historical cases can be identified, and more vulnerable nodes can be identified.


Key words: oil and gas station; risk identification; vulnerable nodes identification; meteorological disaster; complex network; community analysis
收稿日期: 2024-04-30 ????
PACS: ? ?
基金資助:國家自然科學基金(52074323)、中石油戰(zhàn)略合作科技專項(ZLZX2020-05-02) 和中國石油大學( 北京) 科研基金(ZX20200137) 聯(lián)合資助
通訊作者: [email protected]
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胡瑾秋, 韓子從, 董紹華. 氣象災害下的油氣站場設(shè)備脆弱節(jié)點辨識方法. 石油科學通報, 2024, 02: 297-306 HU Jinqiu, HAN Zicong, DONG Shaohua. Identification method of vulnerable nodes of oil and gas station equipment under meteorological disasters. Petroleum Science Bulletin, 2024, 02: 297-306.
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