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摘要? 能源轉(zhuǎn)型的主要內(nèi)容是快速形成以可再生能源為主體的新型低碳能源系統(tǒng),，由于可再生能源的波動(dòng)性特征,，加上極端氣象事件頻發(fā)的影響,，氣象風(fēng)險(xiǎn)已經(jīng)成為能源轉(zhuǎn)型的關(guān)鍵問題。本文立足我國(guó)實(shí)際情況,，從氣象風(fēng)險(xiǎn)角度重新審視我國(guó)的低碳能源系統(tǒng)轉(zhuǎn)型路徑,，并對(duì)多種碳中和轉(zhuǎn)型方案進(jìn)行分析，提出轉(zhuǎn)型過程中提升應(yīng)對(duì)氣象風(fēng)險(xiǎn)能力的舉措并給出相應(yīng)的政策建議,。研究認(rèn)為,，為了確保能源體系在安全可靠的前提下穩(wěn)步完成碳中和轉(zhuǎn)型過程，需要在提高氣象預(yù)測(cè)能力,、重視化石能源作用,、建設(shè)智能傳輸體系、促進(jìn)能源多樣化發(fā)展,、用好價(jià)格機(jī)制5 個(gè)方面采取相應(yīng)措施,，有效防范潛在的氣象風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。

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關(guān)鍵詞 ：能源系統(tǒng),氣象風(fēng)險(xiǎn),低碳轉(zhuǎn)型,碳中和,極端氣象

Abstract：

The main part of energy transition is to form a new low-carbon energy system with renewable energy playing a leading role. However, due to the variability of renewable energy together with the frequent occurrence of extreme weather, meteorological risks are becoming a key problem during energy transitions. Based on the situation of China, the pathways of China’s low carbon energy transitions are rethought and the transitional schemes toward carbon neutrality are analyzed in this study from the angle of meteorological risks. Measures and policy recommendations for improving risk-resistant ability for meteorological risks are proposed. This study suggests that to ensure the carbon-neutral transitions of the energy system in a safe and reliable way and effectively prevent meteorological risks, the following five measures should be adopted: improving meteorological forecast ability, attaching greater importance to fossil fuels, establishing an intelligent energy transmission system, promoting diversified energy development and making full use of price mechanisms.

Key words： energy system; meteorological risk, low carbon transition; carbon neutrality; extreme weather

收稿日期: 2023-08-30 ????

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基金資助:國(guó)家自然科學(xué)基金(72021001、72204020),、教育部人文社會(huì)科學(xué)研究青年基金(22YJC630188),、國(guó)家能源集團(tuán)課題項(xiàng)目(GJNY-22-151)、中國(guó)石油化工股份有限公司課題項(xiàng)目(322005) 聯(lián)合資助

通訊作者: [email protected]

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范英, 姚星, 樊偉. 能源系統(tǒng)低碳轉(zhuǎn)型中的氣象風(fēng)險(xiǎn). 石油科學(xué)通報(bào), 2023, 04: 512-521 FAN Ying, YAO Xing, FAN Wei. Meteorological risks in the low carbon transitions of the energy system. Petroleum Science Bulletin, 2023, 04: 512-521.

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