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首頁» 過刊瀏覽» 2021» Vol.6» Issue(3) 524-538???? DOI : 10.3969/j.issn.2096-1693.2021.03.043
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基于油權(quán)理論的全球能源地緣格局及對中國影響研究
梁萌,,張奇,,任重遠(yuǎn) ,,彭盈盈
1 中國石油大學(xué)(北京)經(jīng)濟(jì)管理學(xué)院,,北京 102249 2 中國石油集團(tuán)經(jīng)濟(jì)技術(shù)研究院,,北京 100724 3 中國石油大學(xué)(北京)中國能源戰(zhàn)略研究院,,北京 102249
A study of the global pattern of energy geopolitics based on petroleum power theory and its impact on China
LIANG Meng, ZHANG Qi, REN Zhongyuan, PENG Yingying
1 School of Economics and Management, China University of Petroleum-Beijing, Beijing 102249, China 2 CNPC Economics and Technology Research Institute, Beijing 100724, China 3 China Energy Strategy Research Institute, China University of Petroleum-Beijing, Beijing 102249, China

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摘要? 新冠疫情不但導(dǎo)致世界經(jīng)濟(jì)受創(chuàng),,還使得石油行業(yè)成為受影響最嚴(yán)重的領(lǐng)域,,全球石油需求被大幅壓縮,。 為爭奪市場份額,,世界最大原油出口國沙特與最大生產(chǎn)國俄羅斯爆發(fā)了石油價(jià)格戰(zhàn),加劇了油價(jià)暴跌與國際石 油市場的動(dòng)蕩,,全球石油問題中的地緣政治色彩更加突出,,背后實(shí)為國際石油體系中地緣政治權(quán)力的博弈,本 文稱之為油權(quán),。本研究首先基于油權(quán)理論,,結(jié)合地緣政治學(xué)、國際關(guān)系學(xué),、政治經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)視角,,從資源、通道和 市場的角度,,提出了全球石油權(quán)力指標(biāo)體系,,并定量評估了主要國家的油權(quán)指數(shù)時(shí)空演化,。進(jìn)一步基于油氣資 源國與中國之間的能源地緣互動(dòng)關(guān)系,量化分析了主要資源國對中國影響及其演變特征,,包括資源國的油權(quán),、 與中國的外交關(guān)系、通道安全,、中國對其依賴度以及其對中國的依賴度,。結(jié)果表明:①當(dāng)前全球“3+X”的石 油地緣政治格局形成,俄羅斯,、沙特,、美國為全球的三大關(guān)鍵油權(quán)行為體。②近年來,,主要資源國的油權(quán)指數(shù) 呈現(xiàn)增加的趨勢,。③美國、伊拉克,、澳大利亞,、卡塔爾等西方陣營的資源國對我國的影響力增強(qiáng),而伊朗,、委 內(nèi)瑞拉,、哈薩克斯坦等我國傳統(tǒng)伙伴對我國的影響力減弱。④新冠疫情背景下油權(quán)的結(jié)構(gòu)性權(quán)力特征更加凸顯,, 有助于進(jìn)一步提升中國的油權(quán)指數(shù)以及在世界石油地緣政治中的潛在影響力,。
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關(guān)鍵詞 : 石油地緣政治,;能源地緣政治;全球石油權(quán)力,;能源權(quán)力,;油權(quán)理論;能源安全
Abstract
The new coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic has impacted much of the global economy, and the oil market has    
been one of the hardest-hit sectors. Global oil demand was expected to decline greatly in 2020 as the impact of the COVID-19    
spreads around the world. An oil price war broke out between Russia, the world’s largest crude oil producer, and Saudi Arabia,    
the world’s largest oil exporter, in order to compete for global market share, which aggravated the collapse of the oil price and the    
turmoil on the international oil market. Thus, the geopolitical role of the global oil issue becomes more prominent. Behind this  
is the game of petroleum power, i.e. the struggle and use of geopolitical power in the international petroleum system, named as    
petroleum power in this paper. In the present study, a new global petroleum power index system is proposed based on the theory    
of petroleum power and from the perspectives of geopolitics, international relations and political economy theories, As well, a    
global petroleum power indicator system was proposed and the temporal and spatial evolution of the petroleum power index    
of major oil and gas-rich countries are evaluated quantitatively, including secondary indicators covering oil and gas resources,    
cross-border transportation, international oil and gas markets and national strength. Based on the energy geo-interaction    
between oil and gas-rich countries and China, the influence index of major oil and gas-rich countries on China and its evolution    
characteristics are analyzed quantitatively. This involved the petroleum power of oil and gas-rich countries, diplomatic relations    
between China and oil and gas-rich countries, security of cross-border transport between China and oil and gas-rich countries,    
China’s dependence on oil and gas-rich countries and the dependence of oil and gas-rich countries on China. The results show    
that: (i) In the current international petroleum geopolitics system, a “3+X” petroleum geopolitical pattern was formed. Russia,    
Saudi Arabia and the United States are the three key players in petroleum geopolitics in the global level. (ii) In recent years, the    
petroleum power index of the main oil and gas-rich countries has increased. (iii) The United States, Iraq, Australia, Qatar and    
other countries of western coalition have increasing influence on China. On the other hand, Iran, Venezuela, Kazakhstan and    
other oil and gas-rich countries, are China’s traditional friendly partners, but their influence has decreased significantly. (iv) In    
the context of COVID-19, the structural characteristics of petroleum power are more prominent, which helps to further enhance    
China’s petroleum power index and its potential influence in the international oil geopolitics system.  


Key words: oil geopolitics; energy geopolitics; global petroleum power; energy power; petroleum power theory; energy security
收稿日期: 2021-09-29 ????
PACS: ? ?
基金資助:中國博士后科學(xué)基金項(xiàng)目(2019M660934) 資助
通訊作者: [email protected]
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梁萌, 張奇, 任重遠(yuǎn), 彭盈盈. 基于油權(quán)理論的全球能源地緣格局及對中國影響研究. 石油科學(xué)通報(bào), 2021, 03: 524-538 LIANG Meng, ZHANG Qi, REN Zhongyuan, PENG Yingying. A study of the global pattern of energy geopolitics based on petroleum power theory and its impact on China. Petroleum Science Bulletin, 2021, 03: 524-538.
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