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首頁» 過刊瀏覽» 2021» Vol.6» Issue(2) 302-314???? DOI : 10.3969/j.issn.2096-1693.2021.02.024
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中國油氣行業(yè)甲烷逃逸排放核算與時(shí)空特征研究
楊梓誠 ,,高俊蓮 ,,唐旭 ,,仲冰 ,,張博
1 中國礦業(yè)大學(xué)(北京)管理學(xué)院,,北京 100083 2 中國石油大學(xué)(北京)經(jīng)濟(jì)管理學(xué)院,,北京 102249
Accounting and spatial-temporal characteristics of fugitive methane emissions from the oil and natural gas industry in China
YANG Zicheng1 , GAO Junlian1 , TANG Xu2 , ZHONG Bing1 , ZHANG Bo
1 School of Management, China University of Mining & Technology-Beijing, Beijing 100083 2 School of Economics and Management, China University of Petroleum-Beijing, Beijing 102249

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摘要? 甲烷是僅次于二氧化碳的第二大溫室氣體,,油氣開發(fā)利用的全產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈均會產(chǎn)生甲烷逃逸排放,。在 2060 年前實(shí)現(xiàn)碳中和的愿景下,,我國油氣行業(yè)的甲烷減排需求迫切,,而準(zhǔn)確地核算與評估甲烷逃逸排放是 油氣行業(yè)開展甲烷排放控制工作的前提。本文采用《IPCC2006 年國家溫室氣體清單指南(2019 修訂版)》推 薦的排放因子,,核算了 2000—2017 年我國油氣行業(yè)甲烷逃逸排放,,并分析了具體的時(shí)空演變特征。結(jié)果表 明,,2000—2017 年我國油氣行業(yè)的甲烷逃逸排放持續(xù)增長,,2000 年所估算的區(qū)間范圍為 703.6 Gg(低排放情 景)~970.4 Gg(高排放情景),到 2017 年增長為 1697.3~3288.3 Gg,;其中石油系統(tǒng)的甲烷排放先增加后下降,,從 2000 年的 561.9~648.0 Gg增長到 2017 年的 696.6~783.0 Gg;天然氣系統(tǒng)的甲烷排放保持持續(xù)增長,,從 2000 年 的 141.7~322.5 Gg增長到 2017 年的 1000.7~2505.3 Gg,。天然氣系統(tǒng)相比于石油系統(tǒng),其甲烷逃逸排放增長更快,。 從具體的排放源類別來看,,在以排放更低的技術(shù)和實(shí)踐為主的低排放情景,油氣行業(yè)的生產(chǎn)環(huán)節(jié)為關(guān)鍵排放源,, 而在排放更高的技術(shù)和實(shí)踐為主的高排放情景下,,天然氣系統(tǒng)的運(yùn)輸環(huán)節(jié)也成為關(guān)鍵的排放源,表明這些排放 源具有較大的減排潛力。從空間特征來看,,伴隨油氣資源勘探開發(fā)布局的變化,,我國油氣行業(yè)甲烷逃逸排放的 分布總體呈現(xiàn)出由東北、華北地區(qū)向西北,、西南地區(qū)轉(zhuǎn)移的趨勢,;對比現(xiàn)有的清單研究結(jié)果發(fā)現(xiàn),由于排放源 完整性,、核算方法和數(shù)據(jù)精度方面的差異,,關(guān)于我國油氣系統(tǒng)甲烷逃逸排放的估算研究仍存在較大的不確定性。 最后,,從國家清單編制常態(tài)化,、清單編制方法學(xué)完善、高分辨率排放源識別等方面,,對促進(jìn)我國油氣行業(yè)甲烷 排放清單的編制提出了相應(yīng)建議,。
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關(guān)鍵詞 : 甲烷排放,;石油系統(tǒng);天然氣系統(tǒng),;溫室氣體排放,;清單編制
Abstract
Methane is the second largest greenhouse gas after carbon dioxide. The emissions of methane inevitably occur along  
the entire oil & natural gas supply chains. Under the vision of being carbon neutral by 2060, China's oil & gas industry has an    
urgent need to reduce methane emissions. Accurate accounting and evaluation of fugitive methane emissions is a prerequisite for    
the oil and gas industry to carry out methane emissions control. Based on the emission factors recommended by 2019 Refinement    
to the 2006 IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventory, we estimate the fugitive methane emissions from China’s    
oil & natural gas systems from 2000 to 2017, identify the main features of temporal and spatial inventory changes, and compare    
the inventory data with those adopted from existing studies. The results show that methane emissions from China’s oil & natural    
gas systems increased continuously, from 703.6 Gg (low emission scenarios)~970.4 Gg (high emission scenarios) in 2000 to    
1697.3~3288.3 Gg in 2017. The methane emissions of the oil system increased from 561.9~648.0 Gg in 2000 to 696.6~783.0 Gg    
in 2017; methane emissions from the natural gas system continued to grow, from 141.7~322.5 Gg in 2000 to 1000.7~2505.3 Gg    
in 2017. The natural gas system had a much larger growth rate of fugitive methane emissions than the oil system. Considering    
most activities occurring with lower-emitting-technologies and practices, the production segment of the oil & natural gas industry    
is the key emission source. The transportation segment of the natural gas system is an important emission source under the    
condition of most activities occurring with higher-emitting-technologies and practices, suggesting large mitigation potentials in    
different fields. From the point of view of spatial characteristics, the distribution of methane emissions in China’s oil & natural    
gas industries of China shows the trend of shifting from Northeast and North China to Northwest and Southwest China, along    
with the layout change of oil & natural gas resources exploration and development. Comparing with the results of the existing    
inventory research, it is found that there is still a great uncertainty in the estimation of methane emission from oil & natural gas    
systems in China, owing to the differences on the completeness of emission sources, accounting methods and data accuracy.    
Finally, this study provides some suggestions to develop the inventories of methane emissions in China’s oil & natural gas    
industries, such as the normalization of national inventory compilation, the improvement of accounting methodology and the    
implementation of high-resolution source monitoring.  


Key words: methane emissions; oil systems; natural gas systems; greenhouse gas emissions; inventory compilation
收稿日期: 2021-06-30 ????
PACS: ? ?
基金資助:國家自然科學(xué)基金基礎(chǔ)科學(xué)中心項(xiàng)目(72088101 ),、國家自然科學(xué)基金面上項(xiàng)目(71774161) 資助
通訊作者: [email protected]
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楊梓誠, 高俊蓮, 唐旭, 仲冰, 張博. 中國油氣行業(yè)甲烷逃逸排放核算與時(shí)空特征研究. 石油科學(xué)通報(bào), 2021, 02: 302-314 YANG Zicheng, GAO Junlian, TANG Xu, ZHONG Bing, ZHANG Bo. Accounting and spatial-temporal characteristics of fugitive methane emissions from the oil and natural gas industry in China. Petroleum Science Bulletin, 2021, 02: 302-314.
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