The analysis and prospects of safety thinking and accident models
WU Xingguang, HOU Lei, LIU Fangyuan, WU Shouzhi, WU Zhuang
National Engineering Laboratory for Pipeline Safety/MOE Key Laboratory of Petroleum Engineering,China University of Petroleum-Beijing, Beijing 102249, China
The increasing complexity of social-technical systems has not only created more potential safety issues, but has also spurred constant changes in safety thinking. Safety thinking has changed from reactive management based on post-event response to proactive management based on real-time monitoring, while the accident models have also changed from simple linear thinking to complex system thinking. Profound understandingof the function and connotation of the accident model is helpful for model selection and development for specific practical problems. To date, little work has been done to conduct in-depth analysis of safety thinking and its relationship with accident models, and the characteristics, applicability and limitations of each accident model. In this study, on the basis of the review of the development of safety concepts and safety thinking, the accident models were divided into event-based causal chain models, models based on system theory and predictive models based on safety barriers. Representative models of the three types were comprehensively analyzed from the aspects of model origin, function, and applicability. The challenges and future development directions of the accident models were reviewed by comparative analysis of the advantages, disadvantages and application prospects of different types of models.
