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首頁» 過刊瀏覽» 2017» Vol. 2» Issue (4) 536-545???? DOI : 10.3969/j.issn.2096-1693.2017.04.050
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基于因子分析法的城市燃氣可持續(xù)發(fā)展評價
王中元1,2*,,羅東坤1
1 中國石油大學(xué)(北京)工商管理學(xué)院,,北京 102249 2 昆侖能源有限公司 ,,北京 100101
Evaluation of sustainable development of city gas based on factor analysis
WANG Zhongyuan1,2, LUO Dongkun1
1 School of Business Administration, China University of Petroleum-Beijing, Beijing 102249, China 2 Kunlun Energy Company Limited, Beijing 100101, China

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摘要? 城市燃氣可持續(xù)發(fā)展研究相對較少,,以中國城市燃氣為整體研究對象的可持續(xù)發(fā)展評價仍是空白,。本文以系統(tǒng)論和層次分析法工作原理為指導(dǎo),,以城市燃氣可持續(xù)發(fā)展為整體研究對象,,通過指標(biāo)的初選和篩選,,構(gòu)建了由5個子系統(tǒng)和47項具體指標(biāo)構(gòu)成的城市燃氣可持續(xù)發(fā)展評價指標(biāo)體系,。在搜集和整理大量原始指標(biāo)數(shù)據(jù)基礎(chǔ)上,,運用因子分析法對城市燃氣可持續(xù)發(fā)展系統(tǒng)進行了分析和評價。2002—2014年,,各子系統(tǒng)發(fā)展呈上升趨勢,,但又表現(xiàn)不盡一致。經(jīng)濟子系統(tǒng)波動幅度較大,,社會子系統(tǒng)持續(xù)穩(wěn)定增長,,資源子系統(tǒng)前緊后松,環(huán)境子系統(tǒng)穩(wěn)中趨緩,,技術(shù)子系統(tǒng)最為顯著,。以城市燃氣子系統(tǒng)運動的多維空間結(jié)構(gòu)模型為基礎(chǔ),結(jié)合因子分析法評價結(jié)果,,對城市燃氣系統(tǒng)整體的發(fā)展能力,、協(xié)調(diào)能力、持續(xù)能力和可持續(xù)發(fā)展水平做出評價,??傮w來看,城市燃氣系統(tǒng)發(fā)展能力不斷增強,,整體協(xié)調(diào)性較高,,持續(xù)能力穩(wěn)步提升。在其共同作用下,,城市燃氣行業(yè)可持續(xù)發(fā)展水平不斷提高,。
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關(guān)鍵詞 : 城市燃氣, 可持續(xù)發(fā)展, 評價指標(biāo)體系, 因子分析
Abstract

  Research into sustainable development of urban gas is relatively sparse, and the evaluation of sustainable development based on the overall research into urban gas in China is still blank. Guided by system theory and analytic hierarchy processes (AHP), this paper took the sustainable development system of China's urban gas as a whole research object, and constructed the city gas sustainable development evaluation index system which consists of 5 subsystems and 47 specific indicators through primaries and screening indexes. On the basis of collecting and arranging a large amount of original index data, the authors analyzed and evaluated the sustainable development system of urban gas by using the factor analysis method. During 2002-2014, the development of each subsystem has shown an upward tendency, but with different performance. The economic subsystem fluctuates more widely, while the social subsystem continues to grow steadily. The resource subsystem developed fast early on and slowly in the latter stage. The development of the environment subsystem is best described as stable and slow, and the growth of the technology subsystem is most remarkable. Based on the multidimensional spatial structure model of urban gas subsystem movement, and combining the factor analysis evaluation results, this work calculates the development capacity, coordination ability, sustainable ability and sustainable development level of the urban gas system, and then evaluates its sustainable development. Overall, the development capacity of urban gas systems is increasing, the whole system reflects a high degree of coordination, and the sustainable ability has been improved steadily. Under this joint action, the sustainable development level of city gas industry has been increasing continuously.

Key words: city gas sustainable development evaluation index system factor analysis
收稿日期: 2017-07-05 ????
PACS: ? ?
基金資助:國家科技重大專項“頁巖氣開發(fā)經(jīng)濟評價方法研究”(2012ZX05018-005-04)資助
通訊作者: 王中元, [email protected]
引用本文: ??
王中元,,羅東坤. 基于因子分析法的城市燃氣可持續(xù)發(fā)展評價[J]. 石油科學(xué)通報, 2017, 2(4): 536-545. WANG Zhongyuan, LUO Dongkun. Evaluation of sustainable development of city gas based on factor analysis. Petroleum Science Bulletin, 2017, 2(4): 536-545.
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