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摘要? 本文研究的目的是為我國(guó)石油化工合同能源管理(Energy Performance Contracting,，EPC)項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià)提供一種方法。EPC源于20世紀(jì)70年代中期的美國(guó),，在國(guó)外發(fā)展了40多年,，且發(fā)展得非常迅速。1997年,，作為一種先進(jìn)的能源管理模式,，EPC引入中國(guó),。經(jīng)過(guò)近20年,，盡管其在國(guó)內(nèi)得到迅速發(fā)展，但在我國(guó)石油化工行業(yè)推廣應(yīng)用過(guò)程中卻較為遲緩,。本文通過(guò)文獻(xiàn)分析和問(wèn)卷調(diào)查,，構(gòu)建了我國(guó)石油化工合同能源管理項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險(xiǎn)指標(biāo)體系，并采用層次分析法的改良法-G1賦權(quán)法和模糊綜合評(píng)價(jià)法,，對(duì)寧夏石化公司實(shí)施的合同能源管理項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險(xiǎn)進(jìn)行實(shí)證評(píng)價(jià),。

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關(guān)鍵詞 ：合同能源管理, 石油化工, 項(xiàng)目, 風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià), G1賦權(quán)法, 模糊綜合法, 指標(biāo)體系

Abstract：

　　This paper’s purpose is to provide a method for the risk evaluation of China’s petrochemical Energy Performance Contracting (EPC) projects. EPC which originated in the United States in the middle of 1970s developed rapidly over 40 years. In 1997, EPC was introduced into China as an advanced energy management mode. For nearly 20 years, EPC has been developing rapidly in China. However, in the petroleum and chemical industries of China the process of EPC is slow. Through literature analysis and questionnaire survey, the risk index system of China’s petrochemical EPC projects has been constructed. Based on this, an improved G1 weighting method and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method are applied to evaluate the risk of the EPC project of the Ningxia Petrochemical Company.

Key words： Energy Performance Contracting petrochemical projects risk evaluation G1 weighting method fuzzy comprehensive evaluation index system

收稿日期: 2016-11-04 ????

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基金資助:

通訊作者: 董秀成 [email protected]

引用本文: ??

吳志炯,，董秀成. 我國(guó)石油化工合同能源管理項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià)研究[J]. 石油科學(xué)通報(bào), 2017, 2(1): 151-160. WU Zhijiong, DONG Xiucheng. Risk evaluation research of China’s petrochemical Energy Performance Contracting projects. Petroleum Science Bulletin, 2017, 2(1): 151-160.

鏈接本文: ?

http://sykxtb.cup.edu.cn/CN/10.3969/j.issn.2096-1693.2017.01.015 或 http://sykxtb.cup.edu.cn/CN/Y2017/V2/I1/151

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