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摘要? 在管線實(shí)際運(yùn)營過程中,，影響管線安全的不確定因素很多,，如果不能很好地考慮這些不確性因素,，可靠性評定結(jié)果會產(chǎn)生較大偏差,。本文首先對L415,、L485,、L555管道環(huán)焊縫的環(huán)焊縫拉伸強(qiáng)度,、環(huán)焊縫沖擊功和環(huán)焊縫斷裂韌性等材料性能參數(shù)進(jìn)行統(tǒng)計(jì)分析,。采用常用的正態(tài)分布、對數(shù)正態(tài)分布,、指數(shù)分布,、Gumbel分布和Weibull二參數(shù)分布來描述這些參數(shù)的分布類型，并對相應(yīng)的分布類型進(jìn)行參數(shù)估計(jì),。其次,，在給定的顯著水平下，分別利用K-S檢驗(yàn)和χ2檢驗(yàn)對分布進(jìn)行非參數(shù)檢驗(yàn),。最后,，根據(jù)檢驗(yàn)結(jié)果，給出參數(shù)的最佳分布類型，這對提高管道環(huán)焊縫可靠性分析的準(zhǔn)確性有重要作用,。

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關(guān)鍵詞 ：環(huán)焊縫,；可靠性,；參數(shù)估計(jì)；非參數(shù)檢驗(yàn)

Abstract：

　　During the actual operation of the pipelines, there are many uncertain factors affecting pipeline safety. If these uncertain factors are not well considered, the results of reliability analysis will have greater deviations. In this paper, we made a statistical analysis of material properties of L415, L485 and L555 pipeline girth welds, including girth weld tensile strength, girth weld impact energy and girth weld fracture toughness. Normal distribution, logarithmic normal distribution, exponential distribution, Gumbel distribution and two-parameter Weibull distribution were used to describe the distribution of these parameters and to estimate parameter distributions. Then K-S and χ^a tests were used for a non-parametric test under the given significant level. Finally, according to test results, the best distributions of parameters were proposed, which is important to improve the accuracy of reliability analysis for girth welds on pipelines.

Key words： girth weld ; reliability ; parameter estimation ; non-parametric test

收稿日期: 2016-11-15 ????

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基金資助:國家科技支撐計(jì)劃項(xiàng)目(2015BAK16B02)資助

通訊作者: [email protected]

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任偉,，帥健. 管道環(huán)焊縫可靠性的參數(shù)統(tǒng)計(jì)分布研究[J]. 石油科學(xué)通報(bào), 2016, 1(3): 484-492. REN Wei, SHUAI Jian. Research into the statistical distribution of reliability parameters for girth welds on pipelines. 石油科學(xué)通報(bào), 2016, 1(3): 484-492.

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