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摘要? 隨著我國石油企業(yè)“走出去”程度不斷加強,，石油企業(yè)決策者也面臨一系列的風險,，做好經(jīng)濟風險分析，是規(guī)避損失的有效手段,。本文根據(jù)海外投資項目特點,，選取蒙特卡羅模擬法和決策樹分析法作為經(jīng)濟風險分析的主要方法，進而在系統(tǒng)分析海外投資項目經(jīng)濟風險因素的基礎上,，結合某海外投資項目實例,，綜合運用蒙特卡羅模擬法和決策樹分析法，對經(jīng)濟風險進行定量分析,，這兩種方法所得結論基本一致,，該項目的風險程度屬于低風險。最后有針對性的提出應對海外投資項目經(jīng)濟風險的對策建議,。

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關鍵詞 ： overseas investment project ; economic risk ; Monte Carlo simulation ; decision tree analysis

Abstract：

　　With the increasing global outlook of Chinese petroleum enterprises, their decision-makers face a series of risks. Economic risk analysis is an effective means of reducing losses. Based on the characteristics of overseas investment projects and system analysis of risk factors, Monte Carlo simulation and decision tree analysis methods are adopted in this paper to evaluate the economic risks for one overseas investment project. The results show that the two methods have almost the same conclusion that the project is low risk. Finally, suggestions are put forward to deal with the economic risks of overseas investment projects.

Key words：海外投資項目；經(jīng)濟風險分析,；蒙特卡羅模擬,；決策樹

收稿日期: 2016-07-24 ????

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基金資助:國家社會科學基金重大項目“非常規(guī)油氣開發(fā)利用對國家能源安全和社會經(jīng)濟的影響”(13&ZD159)和國家自然科學基金項目“中國天然氣安全預警與應急系統(tǒng)研究”(71273277)聯(lián)合資助

通訊作者: [email protected]

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姜洪殿，董康銀,，孫仁金,，邱坤. 我國石油企業(yè)海外投資項目經(jīng)濟風險分析研究[J]. 石油科學通報, 2016, 1(3): 512-521. JIANG Hongdian, DONG Kangyin, SUN Renjin, QIU Kun. Research into economic risk analysis of overseas investment projects of Chinese petroleum enterprises . 石油科學通報, 2016, 1(3): 512-521.

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