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基于博弈分析的我國(guó)天然氣儲(chǔ)氣庫(kù)開(kāi)發(fā)策略及運(yùn)營(yíng)模式研究
陳思源,,張奇,,王歌,李彥
中國(guó)石油大學(xué)( 北京) 中國(guó)能源戰(zhàn)略研究院,北京 102249
Development strategy and operation mode of gas storage in China based on game analysis
Academy of Chinese Energy Strategy, China University of Petroleum-Beijing, Beijing 102249

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摘要? 天然氣在不同季節(jié)的需求量差距很大,,為保障天然氣供應(yīng)系統(tǒng)的安全穩(wěn)定運(yùn)行,,需依靠?jī)?chǔ)氣庫(kù)進(jìn)行天然氣供應(yīng)量的調(diào)節(jié)。此外,,隨著天然氣定價(jià)機(jī)制改革的推進(jìn),,儲(chǔ)氣庫(kù)的開(kāi)發(fā)策略和運(yùn)營(yíng)模式成為了理論和政策研究的熱點(diǎn)。本研究在中國(guó)天然氣定價(jià)機(jī)制改革的大背景下,,根據(jù)我國(guó)天然氣市場(chǎng)的具體情況,,提出了天然氣市場(chǎng)非合作博弈模型,定量分析天然氣儲(chǔ)氣庫(kù)的最優(yōu)開(kāi)發(fā)策略與運(yùn)營(yíng)模式,,解決了原有天然氣儲(chǔ)氣庫(kù)開(kāi)發(fā)和運(yùn)營(yíng)研究以定性分析為主,、缺乏模型支持的問(wèn)題。分析結(jié)果顯示,,當(dāng)儲(chǔ)氣庫(kù)非獨(dú)立運(yùn)營(yíng)時(shí),,第三方準(zhǔn)入會(huì)促使垂直一體化經(jīng)營(yíng)的生產(chǎn)商修建更多的儲(chǔ)氣設(shè)施,儲(chǔ)氣庫(kù)最優(yōu)容量將擴(kuò)大為原來(lái)的1.2 倍,,同時(shí)消費(fèi)者剩余增加了25%,,社會(huì)總福利增加9%。當(dāng)儲(chǔ)氣庫(kù)獨(dú)立運(yùn)營(yíng)時(shí),,儲(chǔ)氣庫(kù)最優(yōu)容量增加至一體化經(jīng)營(yíng)時(shí)的1.6 倍,,社會(huì)總福利增加44%。由此可見(jiàn),,儲(chǔ)氣庫(kù)完全獨(dú)立運(yùn)營(yíng)能有效刺激天然氣下游市場(chǎng)需求,,并且能有效緩解冬季用氣緊張。
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關(guān)鍵詞 : 天然氣; 儲(chǔ)氣庫(kù),; 運(yùn)營(yíng)模式,; 博弈分析
Abstract

  Due to the serious gas consumption fluctuations in different seasons, gas storage facilities are necessary to secure a reliable gas supply. Currently gas storage capacity is very small in China, due to a lack of economic incentive for storage facility construction under the current pricing mechanism. In this study, the impacts of the operation mode and pricing mechanisms of possible gas storage facilities are analyzed based on game theory. It is suggested that the storage capacity can be increased through market reform in China. A game theoretic model is proposed in this study, which can be used to analyze the operation modes of natural gas storage quantitatively. The most similar current studies are based on qualitative analysis without supporting mathematic models. Our results show that by allowing third party involvement, the storage capacity of gas storage raises to 1.2 times of the original. Meanwhile, consumer surplus increases by 25%. Total social welfare grows by 9%. When the storage operates independently, the optimal capacity becomes 1.6 times of that of integrated operation and the total social welfare is raised by 44%. This means independent operation is most effective for the gas storage.

Key words: natural gas ; underground gas storage facilities ; operation mode ; game theoretic analysis
收稿日期: 2018-05-30 ????
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陳思源,張奇,,王歌,,李彥. 基于博弈分析的我國(guó)天然氣儲(chǔ)氣庫(kù)開(kāi)發(fā)策略及運(yùn)營(yíng)模式研究[J]. 石油科學(xué)通報(bào), 2016, 1(1): 175-182. CHEN Siyuan, ZHANG Qi, WANG Ge, LI Yan. Development strategy and operation mode of gas storage in China based on game analysis. 石油科學(xué)通報(bào), 2016, 1(1): 175-182.
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